Two Big Guns, One Safe Passage
Having reached the semi finals of the last World Cup, Germany and Joachim Löw were hell bent on winning the Euros in Austria and Switzerland, only to fall at the final hurdle. Although they were occasionally unconvincing during the summer, the Germans were at their professional, dogged best in dispensing with fellow tournament favourites Portugal and in fighting to the last in the Turkey semi, before succumbing to Spain and a Fernando Torres finale. As a result, the Nationalmannschaft will be confident of a good showing in the upcoming qualifiers, and have nothing overly to fear from any of their rivals. However, the system of just one automatic qualifier presents a major danger with Guus Hiddink’s free-flowing Russians also gunning for the top spot.
The Dutchman’s team oozed class in the Euros but seemed to have ran out of steam by the time their semi with ultimate winners Spain came around. That said, if Germany will be confident, there will be belief the squad vitality to spare in the Russian camp.
Germany stuttered somewhat in the Euro 2008 qualifiers, where they were again paired with Wales, and ended up lurching over the line below the Czech Republic. They cannot afford to be so lethargic in their application this time around. Though matches between the two Group favourites promise real commitment and potentially spectacular entertainment (mark the calendar for the first skirmish, when Hiddink’s men visit Germany on November 11th) the consistency shown in the other, ‘easier’ matches will likely prove crucial come the end of the campaign.
Germany face a potentially tricky opener in Finland, which just might leave them chasing Russia from day one, particularly given the absence of Torsten Frings, Arne Friedrich, Per Mertesacker and Michael Ballack. Russia has the easier of the two ties, at home to Wales, made all the more welcoming given the visitors raft with withdrawals due to injury.
Still, it has to be said that, all in all, Group 4 hardly sets the pulses racing. It seems highly unlikely that any of the chasing pack possess the quality, depth and consistency to mount a serious challenge, and spring what would be an other-worldly surprise of a top two finish.
Fighting For Scraps
Finland would consider them elves best placed to reach for the seemingly unattainable stars of qualification, or at least keep pace with the giants of the group.Given the good times currently enjoyed by Russia and Germany, even with a similarly sized points haul as gained by the Fins in their Euro 2008 campaign, it all still seems a leap to far.
Löw has already mentioned Finland’s recent improvement as a potential danger and, sure enough, the 24 pts secured in the Euro 2008 qualifiers left them level with Serbia and just 3 from runners-up Portugal. As a feat, it cannot be ignored, but they will probably need to do even better this time, and against top class opposition that are riding high.
If the Fins reproduce a similar points tally, they can at least count on third place, but an average campaign and Wales will hope to pip them. The Welsh had a hugely inconsistent Euro qualifying campaign in results and performance terms, with a mixture of the excellent and the disastrous. It ended with 15pts on the board and a mediocre 5th place.
To make matters extra difficult for John Toshack’s men this time, his squad is decimated by injuries just as the campaign is about to kick off, and with an away tie against rivals Finland next week. Virtually no area of the Wales team is stocked with options and quality alternatives, so when the experienced names drop out, all too often and quickly do Wales from the running.
If the Welsh can keep their best players fit, all of the time, they could, with a crop of promising youngsters coming through, enjoy one of their best qualification campaigns for a while. Unfortunately for the Dragons, it seems lady luck is already deserting them on that front. The principality went the closest in a decade to qualification for a major tournament 5 years ago under the guidance of Mark Hughes, losing a Euro 2004 playoff against Russia in somewhat controversial circumstances. It will be interesting to see what sort of atmosphere accompanies the matches between the two.
Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein make up the numbers, and are all but destined for the basement positions in the league. Both will harbour aspirations of taking points off each other, and possibly at home to Wales. The minnows finished bottom of their last qualifying groups, picking up 5pts and 2pts respectively, though at least the Azeris managed to notch a rare win.
Opening Fixtures
Wales host the Azeris on Saturday in what would have been considered a must win encounter and home banker. However, with an entire first choice defence (the back three) missing, as well as star striker Craig Bellamy plus doubts over other squad members, things look far from straightforward for John Toshack's young squad.
Germany kick off their campaign with what should be a formality in Liechtenstein, though the coach will have some enforced tinkering in the absence of Michael Ballack, Torsten Frings, Arne Friedrich and Per Mertesacker. The likes of Marko Marin, Piotr Trochowski and Sedar Tasci have been called up to the squad, and a reasonably experimental eleven could take to the field, in view of the tough encounter anticipated in Finland on Wednesday.
Saturday, September 6th
Wales – Azerbaijan
Liechtenstein – Germany
Wednesday, September 10th
Russia - Wales
Azerbaijan – Liechtenstein
Finland – Germany
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